Military Intelligence
Several Plague Pit subscribers much better-read than I am are being kind enough to suggest good COVID-19 related links, websites, articles, academic papers, podcasts, videos etc.
I’ll be updating this page weekly with the most recent recommendations at the top. Above each one, in bold type, is the name of the subscriber, their position and the date on which the recommendation was made.
Dr Chas McCaw (6.6.20)
Dr McCaw has recommended some more interesting papers and links this week from, as follows:
(1) What’s the risk that animals will spread the coronavirus?:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01574-4
(2) Coronapod: The divisive hydroxychloroquine study that’s triggering mass confusion:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01625-w
(3) Questions remain following first COVID-19 vaccine results:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00015-x
(4) Much about hydroxychloroquine:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01524-0
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01619-8
Dr Graham Winyard: COVID CONTROVERSIES 6 (1.6.20)
QUESTION: ‘HOW ARE WE DOING?’ ANSWER: ‘NOT VERY WELL’
The political row over Dominic Cummings comes on top of a steady realisation that, in spite of our proud public health history, the UK’s management of the covid pandemic has been among the worst in the developed world. The Financial Times provides a useful tool for making comparisons.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/
There are obvious cautions with the tool; you must look at deaths per population, not just crude numbers (More options dropdown menu). Cumulative totals are a better single measure of overall success than new cases, but you can hop between the two. You can choose up to six countries to compare, and identify additional countries with your cursor.
Germany or Norway show what could have been achieved, while we can only dream of emulating South Korea; even the USA is still way better than us in terms of deaths per population.
Tellingly, success is not a matter of being rich, or having the right pharmaceutical industry in place, as the Economist’s piece on Vietnam and Kerala points out.
So what has gone wrong? The attached British Medical Journal editorial https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932 offers one analysis. There is much to debate, and there will almost certainly be a public inquiry eventually. But our failure, to date, to establish an effective tracing and testing programme, something we know has to be to be at the heart of any successful control regime, is deeply concerning. And will be an important factor determining when it is safe to reopen the schools.
Dr Chas McCaw (1.6.20)
Dr McCaw has handed in a bumper crop of recommendations this week including this selection of articles, and below that, some useful links, too.
The sprint to solve coronavirus protein structures – and disarm them with drugs: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01444-z
Animal source of the coronavirus continues to elude scientists: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01449-8
Coronavirus vaccine trials have delivered their first results – their promise is still unclear: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01092-3
News round-up from National Geographic with great images: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/coronavirus-coverage/
The Good Soldier (19/5/20)
I’ve a few recommendations myself this week. Here’s a good summary of the recent talk about critically ill paediatric patients with COVID-19.
A lot has been said and written about the significance of abmormal blood clotting in COVID-19 infection. Here’s a bit of a briefing on the subject
Finally, Professor Mike Grocott, an eminent UK anaesthetist, recently gave a nice interview about basic intensive care for CNN. Lots of good footage of the kit.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/05/04/coronavirus-intensive-care-equipment-lon-orig.cnn
The Good Soldier (12/5/20)
Regarding the Prime Minister’s recent advice that we should ‘Stay Alert’ rather than ‘Stay at Home’, I’m pleased to pass on this useful aide-memoire devised by a Old Wykehamist in honour of Ronnie Hamilton (Housemaster, Trant’s House, Winchester College, 1946-64). Mnemonics were a device favoured by Hamilton in his role as head of the ‘Corps’ – now Winchester College Combined Cadet Force.
A – be Alert and Adult.
L – overall Lockdown continues for whatever groups.
E – Exercise as allowed with social distancing.
R – behave Responsibly.
T – Travel only when essential and as allowed.
.And here is a picture of Ronnie Hamilton testing a house fire escape:
Dr Chas McCaw, Head of Science, Winchester College (11/05/20)
China is promoting coronavirus treatments based on unproven traditional medicines: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01284-x
Profile of a killer: the complex biology powering the coronavirus pandemic: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7
Hydroxychloroquine update: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/06/hydroxychloroquine-update-for-april-6
Dr Graham Winyard: COVID CONTROVERSIES 5 (10/5/20)
Heading out of lockdown. We will continue to be told that ministers are ‘following the science’ as they ease lockdown restrictions, yet how easy will that be?
Prof Martin McKee from the London School of Hygiene points up the difficulties, emphasising that we have a lot of catching up to do. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/05/06/martin-mckee-the-questions-we-need-to-answer-before-easing-lockdown/
This blog by the psephologist Peter Kellner reinforces the major limitations of current stats in monitoring policy changes https://kellnerpolitics.com/2020/04/27/when-the-lockdown-is-relaxed-how-will-we-tell-if-the-new-rules-are-working/#like-220 though I am not sure about his proposed solution.
Finally, if you are interested in “the case for the prosecution” on the Government’s handling of the pandemic this podcast interview with the editor of the Lancet is riveting stuff. bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08clg1w
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Dr Graham Winyard: COVID CONTROVERSIES 4 (10/5/20)
The pandemic is making us look afresh at many things. These two articles on our food supply caught my eye because of their sharply contrasting viewpoints.
Prof Tim Lang early in the pandemic argues the need for more planning and democratic accountability. https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-rationing-based-on-health-equity-and-decency-now-needed-food-system-expert-133805
The Economist, perhaps not surprisingly, pleads that the $8 trillion global supply chain should be “left free to work its magic”. See what you think.
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Dr John Cullerne (01/05/20)
The journal, Physics Education, have recently published Dr Cullerne’s second paper on the epidemiology of the 1665 plague outbreak in the village of Eyam. He has kindly provided a copy for The Plague Pit, available here:
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Dr Graham Winyard (22/4/20)
COVID CONTROVERSIES 3 – When will this all end?
Lifting the lockdown is starting to be the focus of much discussion. This article in the Conversation presents four viewpoints
https://theconversation.com/lockdown-uk-four-experts-explain-how-to-end-it-136436
One thing is clear- there is a huge amount that we do not know. The attached Guardian piece by Jim Al-Khalili highlights the central role of doubt in science, and the difficulty that politicians have in handling it.
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Dr Graham Winyard, retired public health physician and medical mentor at Barton Peveril Sixth Form College (13/4/20)
There is mounting criticism that the Government was slow to respond to the pandemic. How the UK performed compared with other countries is captured really well on the Financial Times website which has the best covid graphics I have come across. Don’t miss the world map with time sequence of different countries responses.
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
You can get a very good sense of the issues in an interview with Sir Jeremy Farrar, an eminent infectious diseases expert, on the Andrew Marr programme.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hbpp/the-andrew-marr-show-12042020
Watch from 17.15 for 10 minutes if you don’t want to see the whole show.) As well as being very informative, it is a masterclass in how to admit that things have gone wrong without actually saying so in a way that will create headlines.
And if you are interested in how the world may be changed by this, I recommend Professor John Gray’s piece in the April 4th edicion of the New Statesman: ‘Why this crisis is a turning point in history’
https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/04/why-crisis-turning-point-history
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Mr Tom Quayle, English and Div Don, Winchester College (1/4/20):
Florence in the 1631 plague. Listen to Four Hundred Years of Quarantine from The LRB Podcast in Podcasts. https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-lrb-podcast/id510327102?i=1000469990529
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Mr J Cullerne, Undermaster/Physics and Maths Don, Winchester College (23/3/20)
French A, Kansanachakdichai O, Cullerne J. The pedagogical power of context: iterative calculus methods and the epidemiology of Eyam. Physics Education 2019;54(4):045008. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6552/ab00c5/pdf